Mobilising to Save (Pockets of) Civilisation and Civil Society

We are currently on course for a collapse due to various “converging catastrophes,” including climate change, peak oil, resource depletion, water shortages, economic corruption, and much more. I have written previously about this, and I’m far from the only one. We are not only not preparing for these looming disasters, we are accelerating toward them. Therefore, barring a sudden and decisive change of course very soon, we are headed for a collapse.

How hard and how fast the collapse would be depends upon many parameters and is difficult to predict. Likely it would be in downward steps, a “punctuated decline.” There might not be much time or many resources once the collapse has lurched a step or two down, but with competent leadership – and people willing to follow – much could be saved. Of course, just as various vested interests have opposed any protective measures, or even acknowledgement of the predicament we are in, no doubt they will continue to put profit before self-preservation and will have to be neutralised before anything useful can be done.

So, imagine an event has occurred that has triggered an economic collapse. It could have been caused by the popping of a new bubble of some sort – perhaps in carbon futures. Or perhaps a terrorist attack or natural disaster takes out major oil fields, immediately multiplying gas and oil prices and creating shortages. Or food shortages and a subsequent international panic shuts down trade. It doesn’t matter; there are plenty of candidates these days and any one of them could do it.

The situation would be as follows in countries like Canada and the United States:

• Layoffs galore and a rapid return to Great Depression-levels of unemployment
• Foreclosures ramp up, leaving many new homeless or squatters each month
• Transportation costs increase dramatically, causing the prices of almost everything to increase dramatically
• People start to run out of money for essentials like food
• People start to get restless and angry; the mood is ripe for change

Because this is a real collapse, people will not be as willing, or able, to wait it out as they have previous recessions. Then, the jobs returned relatively quickly and most people were still employed. This time, the job loss is looking permanent and a much higher proportion are unemployed. Many more people will be looking at foreclosure or eviction, and they will be angry about it. Capitalism and the greedy will, with some justification, be blamed, and average citizens may well be open to changing the economic system. Social democracy a là the Scandinavian countries will certainly look attractive at this point.

Hold the Guillotines

It is at this point, before things slide further and mob justice makes a comeback, that there is an opportunity for rapid change to a sustainable economy and, in so doing, to preserve much of what is best about civilisation as we know it. If this does not happen and the economy does not recover, then much will be lost. Civil society will break down, or at least break into small islands separated by uncivil areas. Knowledge of all kinds will be lost, just as happened during the collapse of previous civilisations.

People will sense that anarchy is near and so may finally face up to the rather obvious truth that living unsustainably is unsustainable and must, therefore, come to an end sooner or later, or more precisely, round about now. They may be willing to allow a rapid, large-scale restructuring, even more intensive than was required to mobilise for World War II.

Here’s what will need to be done, quickly and decisively, when facing the situation above.

1. Re-localise agriculture immediately. This will be critical, as lettuce flown in from California in the middle of winter may get very expensive. Also, it takes time to sow, tend, and harvest, so better get started right away. Local means local: plant fruit trees down boulevards, plant civic, church, and school grounds with vegetables. Combine P.E. with Biology and Home Ec, and have the students tend the plants. Pay teachers partly with food.
2. Re-direct all available energy to retooling factories to build wind, solar, tidal, and other electricity generating projects. The electricity will be needed for electric trains and streetcars, for lighting, and for manufacturing just about everything we need.
3. Move to a zero-waste society as quickly as possible: Waste not, want not. Drastically cut energy use, reclaim materials for recycling, and make things to be reused or easily recycled, not disposed.
4. Rejuvenate, expand, and electrify the railroads. Stop providing road maintenance for car-based areas like suburbs. Abandon inter-city roads.
5. Put people to work building net-zero houses in carless communities. These are houses that use zero energy over the course of the year for heating, hot water, and lighting. We will need to replace or retrofit many houses currently heated by oil and gas that will simply become too expensive to operate.
6. Relocate former suburbanites to these net-zero houses. Revert the suburbs to farmland; it used to be and it’s very handy to the city. This last may be the most difficult, as people are reluctant to abandon their houses. I don’t think suburbanites should be forced out, but neither should taxpayers subsidise the least efficient form of transportation – roads for the personal car – for the suburbs. I suspect they’ll be more-than-happy to move.

If this is done, it is possible that regions could remain decently civilised even with the collapse of international and national trade. Granted, Kindles might not be high on the priority list of things to make in this new, local economy, and the materials needed to make them might be very difficult to obtain now. But, there could easily be manufacturing of many things, from streetcars and furniture to windows and washing machines.

The leadership to make this happen might arise when needed; certainly there are many people out there who have a decent idea what to do. Whether we would follow them or yet another charismatic charlatan remains to be seen.