Entries Tagged 'Canada' ↓

The world oil supply is running down and we have no ready substitutes.

Climate change is happening now – stronger storms, more devastating wildfires, rising sea levels, diseases spreading – the list goes on, and there is every indication that it will continue to worsen.

The US economy, upon which the world economy still depends, is unstable due to corruption at the top, from most Congressmen to presidential advisors all being former bank executives.

Our leaders are not moving quickly enough to protect the economy in general, never mind your or my livelihoods in particular. Some of our leaders are actually doing things to worsen the situation, such as denying the very existence of climate change or ignoring the ever-rising price of oil.

We are facing “interesting times.” The turbulence has begun, and it’s buffeting us from all directions. Have you ever had the experience of going for a walk and, no matter which direction you were going, the wind always seemed to be in your face? That’s what the future is going to feel like for many people.

I could (and have) proposed large-scale responses to the situation, which frankly at this point need to be a WWII-scale mobilization to re-industrialize and re-do our living arrangements to drastically cut oil dependence immediately and, long-term, eliminate pollution of all kinds by moving to a ‘restorative economy.’

But we’re not going to do that in the foreseeable future, are we? Or anything even remotely close. If you take your family’s security seriously, then you will do what you can to buffer yourself against the coming storms. The best way I have seen to do that is Transition Initiative, and you should seriously consider joining (or starting) one in your area.

TI is a completely grassroots, apolitical initiative, and this is what they do:

Transition Network helps communities deal with climate change and shrinking supplies of cheap energy (peak oil). This process, which we call Transition, aims to create stronger, happier communities.

That’s how we’re going to get through this; by working together in local communities. As the Transition Network site puts it well:

What we are convinced of is this:

• • if we wait for the governments, it’ll be too little, too late
  • if we act as individuals, it’ll be too little
  • but if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just in time.

Your level of involvement can be minimal or massive; the choice is yours. Here are some things that local TIs do:

• Teach people how to grow a garden, save seeds, preserve foods
• Educate people by showing documentaries about peak oil, climate change, solutions, and more
• Host online and IRL forums to discuss and learn
• Show people how to insulate their homes or build a solar greenhouse

Like it or not, the world is changing. You can adapt, or not.

The NDP just won a historic number of seats and, had vote splits gone differently, could have formed the government. One reason the NDP wasn’t a runaway winner is because many Canadians don’t see the NDP as ‘leadership material.’ That is, they’re useful in opposition, but you could never trust them with the levers of power.

The NDP needs to change that perception by showing leadership now. Don’t passively wait for the Harper Government to present a throne speech to which you can respond, or legislation which you can decry. Present some of  your own ideas now; you need to show Canadians that they should have put you in power.

Reform the Senate

Stephen Harper was elected years ago on a promise to reform the Senate. Since then, all he has done is stuff it with partisan hacks. So, call him on it. The NDP favours abolition of the Senate, but would certainly support Senate reform. Harper has a majority and no more excuses not to attempt Senate reform. Excuses or not, you can’t count on him to do and certainly not to do it right.

The NDP should propose Senate reform now, and call out Stephen Harper to respond. Propose sensible reforms that are widely acceptable, and if Harper uses any of your proposal he concedes that the NDP has leadership potential.

Make it something like this:

The numbers in red are Senate Seats.

This balances the regions while giving more populous provinces more seats:

• Atlantic Canada: 8 seats
• Central Canada: 8 seats
• Prairie Canada: 8 seats
• BC: 4 seats
• Northern Territories: 3 seats

To these provincially elected seats, add 4 more for First Nations (however they want to put people on the Senate) and 3 more for scientists put forward by the scientific community.

That’s 38, which is plenty and will save us money over the current arrangement. The Senate should not match population the way Parliament does; two bodies full of partisan hacks doing the same thing is one reason the NDP would like to abolish the current Senate. Instead, we need to balance the power of population with the power of the region.*

Structure elections as some form of proportional representation or run-off, so we start to move away from this divided, us-versus-them, vote-splitting nonsense.

And finally, make the term in the Senate much longer than Parliament, because you need these people thinking in terms of generations: what is best for Canada and our great-grandchildren. Senate terms should be at least 10 years and better 15-20 (capped at age 75 or senility, whichever comes first).

The NDP needs to show leadership: Why are they the better party to lead Canada? One way is by proposing Senate reform and thereby putting Harper on the hook to fulfil a promise he made a long time ago.

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* Balancing the Power of Population with the Power of the Regions

At various times in Canada’s history, more populous – and therefore better politically represented – regions have imposed their will on lesser populated areas. Trudeau’s National Energy Program (NEP) was one such example, in which the people with the oil – Albertans – had to accept a lower-than-world price to effectively subsidize Ontario and Quebec.

This is not fair and it is also damaging to the country. Requiring Alberta to take a lower price meant less revenue for Alberta, and less foreign income for Canada. It also meant that Canadians used more oil because it was cheaper, and therefore today we are less efficient and we have less oil remaining to sell.

In order to prevent a “tyranny of the majority” in which more populous areas take advantage of less populous ones, we need to give some power to people who represent regions. This balances the power of population with the power of the regions, as in the proposal.

The Liberals devastated, although nowhere near as bad as the Progressive Conservatives were in 1993. The Bloc almost wiped out. A single Green, finally and deservedly, elected. And the Conservatives and NDP on top for the next 4-5 years.

What will a Harper majority bring? Will the worst fears of the ABC’s (Anything but Conservatives) be realised? Certainly Mr. Harper now has free rein to spend billions on prisons and fighter jets.

I suspect that public funding for political parties will be chopped, and soon. The NDP stand to get a great deal more in public funding than they ever have – triple the amount they received last election – and with that kind of money they can challenge the Conservatives in a serious way. By cutting public funding, the Conservatives can hobble all their opponents seriously.

That said, cutting public funding risks a backlash; there could be an outpouring of support for the other parties, especially the NDP. Mr. Harper will make this worse if he does something like privatize CBC.

But this is minor. Mr Harper has been dreaming of a majority for a long time, and  you can bet he has some plans to make use of his new power. At the same time, he is somewhat constrained by claims of being fiscally conservative. He has promised to balance the budget within a few years, and at the same time he loves to slash taxes/government revenue. All of that combined with a sluggish economy is not going to provide a lot of money for shiny toys.

Of course, that might mean that Mr. Harper focuses on the social engineering parts of his agenda, as at least initially they cost less. By this I mean he may well order a crackdown on pot, may implement ‘mandatory minimum’ sentences for more crimes, and will likely cut budgets for things he believes should be privatized (education, aspects of health care, for example) or that speak inconvenient truths (all government science departments, for example). U.S-style copyright enforcement is coming. There will be lots of corporate-friendly deals, from ‘free’ trade to special subsidies and tax breaks.

Will Mr. Harper push further? Probably, but how? He will be constrained by budget, and the provinces are expecting to negotiate a new deal on health care. He has already committed billions for fighter jets and prisons, though was sketchy on where the money would come from.

Quebec

Quebec is now a more complicated situation, if that is possible. Quebecers went NDP in a  big way, and the impression around the net community is that many are disappointed that the rest of Canada did not do the same. That is, Quebecers did their part as Canadians to bring in a progressive government, and the rest of us did not hold up our end. Some are pointing to this as evidence that Quebecers do indeed see the world in a different way.

I think there is some truth to this; Quebecers showed courage voting for change the way they did. It reminds me of a key difference between the respective hockey teams: When the Canadiens have a poor team, the fans stay home and management gets the message. When the Leafs have a bad team, the fans still fill the stadiums and buy the merchandise, and so management produces the worst team the fans will accept. Quebecers take action when the situation is not acceptable; the rest of us need to learn that lesson from them.

I think a resurgence of separatism is quite possible, and will be reflected in the next provincial election. The federal NDP would be wise to fight tooth-and-nail to advance Quebec’s progressive agenda; the rest of Canada would benefit, too.

Ontario

Ontario, or really the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) is who shafted Quebec by sending many new Conservative MPs to Ottawa. However – did they really? If you look at the individual riding results, in many cases the Conservatives benefited from vote splitting. Next time, Toronto, get it together and agree on who you’re going with.

There is an Ontario provincial election in October. Historically, Ontario has elected the party opposite to the one in power in Ottawa; given what just happened in Ottawa, the Ontario Liberals would be favoured to win this fall. However, the Liberals have been in power since 2003, numerous suspicious deeds have come to light, and Ontarians may well feel a desire to change them.

But to whom? The Ontario Conservatives are not particularly liked and of course Ontarians just sent plenty of Conservatives to Ottawa. It could be time for Ontario to give the NDP and Greens a shot again.

BC

BC also has an election…sometime. Premier Christy Clark has no seat in the Legislature, as she won the Liberal leadership after Gordon Campbell resigned. She could call an election at any time, as it looks bad if the Premier is unelected. She could also run in a by-election, assuming a safe seat can be found. Currently, the only open seat is not a sure thing, and it would look really bad if the Premier continued to govern after failing to win a seat.

A provincial election is no sure thing for the BC Liberals, either. They’ve been in power awhile and are starting to smell, now there’s a Conservative federal government, so BC voters might just decide to put the NDP and some Greens in charge for a bit. (If public sentiment tips this way, I think there is a real chance that some Greens would be elected.)

Overall

It seems likely to me that the harder Mr. Harper pushes his social engineering agenda, the more likely he is to face unfriendly governments in various provinces (Saskatchewan, which has had a budget-balancing NDP government recently, has an election this year, too). Not that he won’t do some of it anyway; I’m just pointing out the likely backlash.

He is safe cutting taxes and spending money, but squaring this with his alleged fiscal conservatism will be difficult. He will have to at least appear to be on track to balancing the budget or he’ll lose his ‘steady hand on the economy’ reputation.

There are also new expectations that come with majority; for example, Mr. Harper no longer has an excuse for not attempting to reform the Senate, or scrapping the gun registry, or implementing some of the other measures blocked by the Opposition under the previous minority.

Mr. Layton and the NDP have 4-5 years to broaden their base, and they should not waste a minute. There is a very good chance that Canadians will be looking for a change after a long majority Harper government, and the NDP want to be that change. They also want to get building while they’re still getting the per-vote subsidy, which Mr. Harper committed to ending if he gained a majority.

The NDP could do a better job of presenting their values and vision, and then reinforcing these through their platform. Much of what the NDP wants to do is along the German/Nordic model and would be quite popular with many more Canadians than normally vote NDP. Mr. Layton and his new, expanded team need to focus on getting their vision and values to Canadians over the next several years so that next election, the choice is clear.

The Liberals are not out, but they may be reduced for the foreseeable future to something like their current size; it depends how well the NDP do at communicating their vision and values. If the NDP do well, the Liberals are in big trouble and should get used to being on the outside for awhile. Which is not necessarily bad; the Liberals need to decide what they stand for and then stand for it.

The Greens finally have an elected MP, and it’s their leader, Elizabeth May. She will be a strong voice, and her election embarrasses those who kept her out of the leader’s debates. Will she be a breakthrough winner that opens the door to many other Green seats? If the NDP does well, then no.

The next election is the NDP’s to lose. I think Mr. Harper cannot help but push too far, as he has done repeatedly in the past, and enough Canadians will have had enough of him that a credible alternative will win. The NDP must use this time to show how they are that credible alternative.

OBL has been reported dead. This leads me to three possibilities:

1. He really is recently deceased, meaning prior rumours were wrong. If so, points 2 and 3 hold for the US/World generally and Canada specifically.
2. US: There goes a big part of the justification for being in Afghanistan. Americans are sick of being at war, no matter what Bill O’Reilly and the CEO of Halliburton want to think. This is the perfect opportuinty for Mr. Obama to say Afghanistan should become a UN peacekeeping mission – of which the US is not a part - or simply to annouce a timetable for withdrawal. Either way, everyone is relieved. If the Afghanis really do not want to be dominated by the Taliban, then they need to prepare to stand up and destroy them. As the uprisings in the Middle East have shown, only if the people unite against an oppressor can they have a chance to be free.
3. Canada – There goes a large part of Stephen Harper’s fear-based agenda. Not that the whole thing was based on fear of OBL and Al-Queada by a long shot, but OBL was the foundation upon which the War on Terror was built. Canadians are sick of this war and would like to go back to peacekeeping. The only fella tha’s likely to do that is Jack Layton. The official death of OBL can only hurt Harper and boost the NDP. The timing could not be worse for Harper.
4. The fourth possibility is this: It is possible that previous reports of Mr. Bin Laden’s death were correct, and it is just now being officially reported by the United States. If so, points 2 and 3 still stand. The only danger is that Americans somehow discover that Mr. OBL had been dead for some time and their government knew it.

UPDATE: While I have no reason to doubt the official U.S. version, it is awfully convenient that bin Laden was buried at sea.