The powers-that-be, from the banksters to worried politicians, must be desperately seeking the next bubble. How else will the former get rich(er), quick? (I think we can safely rule out the idea that many of them want to get rich the old-fashioned way: slow and steady through building something of real value. Or that they think they already have ‘enough.’ Surfing the bubble is the latest way to get rich, and it is much easier if you have a hand in creating the bubble.) And the latter must be concerned that the current recession appears unwilling to end – and probably permanent thanks to high oil prices. But from what can a bubble be made? I have an uncomfortable feeling it’s going to be one or more of:

• Ethanol
• Carbon trading
• Nuclear power
• Green energy
• Railways

Any area of the economy that grows continuously is a bubble, and eventually must pop. The dotcom boom-and-bust was a prominent example, where investors poured money into marginal ideas, causing massive overvaluation – that was corrected sharply and painfully. The housing bomb that recently exploded caused a worldwide recession as prices rose to levels beyond the reach of many – but who were given mortgages anyway.

A continuous growth economy is also a bubble that must eventually burst; nothing can grow forever on a finite planet, and we are pushing the limits of what is possible given the availability of energy (peak oil) and ‘biofeedback,’ meaning the planet is about to eat us through climate change, resource depletion, and so on. Continue reading →

Oil has been discovered in the waters around the Falklands. This has revived the decades-old conflict between Argentina and the United Kingdom, both of which claim the islands – and this time the rest of Latin America is united behind Argentina. Will we see the developed world unite behind England?

Given the realities of peak oil, finding more is a good thing. However, as oil becomes more and more precious as the supply dwindles – and as foolish Western governments have failed to prepare – the potential for conflict becomes very high indeed. The United States has a massive military presence in the Middle East to protect its “national interests” there, and the United Kingdom is likely to take the same view of any oil discovered anywhere they can make any sort of claim to.

In the first Falklands War, the U.K. handily prevailed, although not without some losses. This time, Argentina has the pledged support of many Latin nations, including Brazil, a heavyweight contender. The supply line from the U.K. to the Falklands is very long indeed, and the British would need a continuous and very costly naval presence to keep any oil flowing from the Falklands to the U.K.

If Britain were to attempt to secure the Falklands by force and drain them dry of oil – a very long straw – this could easily unite Latin America against Britain and her allies. As a Canadian, it is entirely possible that our ‘conservative’ Prime Minister, who would have sent Canadian troops into Iraq had he been in power, or the main opposition leader, who would also have put Canadians in Iraq, would support Britain. This would be disastrous for Canada and for the developed world. Continue reading →

[Disclaimer: I've said before and repeat here: Predicting when a major event like a collapse will happen is for mugs. One can look at current trends and extrapolate, but one cannot know how humans will respond to changing circumstances. That said, one can make educated guesses.]

We face ‘converging catastrophes,’ driven by pollution and resource depletion, and made worse by overpopulation. The two most visible and clearly dangerous are climate change and peak oil.

The Climate Change Social Tipping Point

At current rates of sea-level rise, tens of millions of people will be displaced within 25 years. If you think all those people, and the countries they live in, are going to go quietly into the night…well, would you?

Current projections suggest a sea level rise of at least one metre this century is now likely. A one-metre rise will displace at least 56 million people, and possibly double that.

From Bangladesh to the Maldives, from Vietnam to Pakistan to Alexandria to Venice, millions upon millions of people will be driven from their homes and livelihoods. And where are they to go? Into ever-more crowded areas of their own – and neighbouring – countries. Rising sea levels will produce a tide of climate refugees that will make the chaos in Darfur look mild.

Many of those refugees, and the people whose lands they attempt to crowd into, are going to be angry. Combine that with nothing left to lose, and we have a recipe for human-caused Armageddon . Continue reading →

How far behind are Canada and the United States? How about these for eye-opening statistics:

• A solar water heater in China costs less than $200. Without one, a family wanting hot water would have to buy an electric water heater for about the same price and pay up to $120 per year for electricity. The payback is almost instantaneous.
• By relying on the sun, the citizens of Rizhao have cut carbon dioxide emissions by almost 53 thousand tons per year. Air quality has remained much better than in most urban areas of China, luring foreign investors and increasing tourism.
• Experts project that by 2010 the number of solar water heaters installed in China will equal the thermal equivalent of the electrical capacity of 40 large nuclear power plants. Globally, solar water heaters have the capacity to produce as much energy as more than 140 nukes.

These stunning solar statistics and many more fascinating facts can be found here.

The real question is, why aren’t we also leaders in this area? Where is our Made-at-Home solution? Perhaps the answer is contained in a study from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), which points out that “many barriers and fossil-fuel subsidies” are hampering the switch to a green economy. Here in my province, so-called ‘green’ British Columbia, for example, a recent budget containing a revenue-neutral carbon tax also gave over three hundred million dollars to the oil and gas industries annually. Continue reading →