The Oil Drum is one of the best resources on the web for keeping up-to-speed on peak oil’s progress and ramifications. The site also lists several “Peak Oil Primers,” and amusingly ranks them on a DEFCON scale. The DEFCON scale was designed to indicate the activation level of the U.S. military, with DEFCON 5 being “normal peacetime military readiness” all the way up to DEFCON 1, which signals an “imminent or ongoing attack.”

Having spent some time on each of those sites, I can say that they all predict very bad outcomes as peak oil progresses. TOD’s DEFCON rating appears to come from the optimism a site has about avoiding the worst of these outcomes, and how far along we are. I think it is fair to say that Kunstler and Savinar think sliding down the razor’s edge is unavoidable.

Where would you rate yourself? Do you think we still have time to develop alternatives, that peak oil has not yet arrived, that its impact will be slow and we can adapt? Put yourself at DEFCON 5, the lowest rating. Think like Kunstler and Savinar, that there are going to be significant casualties and a big chunk of civilisation will be lost? You’re at DEFCON 1. Or perhaps you’re somewhere in-between.

Personally, I stand at Defcon Zen. What is will be, and we do what we can. Continue reading →

Peak oil has been explained in great depth in many places with solid supporting information. I have referenced some of those books and websites at the end of this post. Here, I will do my best to explain what peak oil is and what it means for you and us, in a dead simple manner.

What is peak oil?

The concept of peak oil is very simple: The earth has a certain amount of oil (and other fossil fuels). No more is being made. Peak oil occurs when half of this oil has been used.

It is a peak because, from that point forward, there will be less oil available. We appear to have hit the peak.

What will be the effects of peak oil?

The effects of peak oil are quite deadly and easy to understand once you realise how dependent our society is upon oil:

1. Our entire society is built on readily available and inexpensive oil. Essentially every car, transport truck, train, ship, and aeroplane runs on oil. (Or gasoline, diesel, or some other derivative of oil.) Almost all farming requires oil for fuel and for agro-chemicals like pesticides and fertilizers. All plastic is made from oil. All mining requires oil-fueled machinery, including tar mining to get more oil.
2. Demand for oil is increasing as countries like China develop.
3. As the demand for oil collides with a decreasing supply, oil prices will spike. These spikes cause recessions.
4. In addition to oil price spikes, oil prices will trend upward, causing a permanent recession, or more likely, a depression.

There you have it; peak oil is simple and deadly. Continue reading →

A word of warning: To many, the Mobilisation Plan given here will seem extreme, even ridiculous. It calls for a radical restructuring of our economy, how we use energy and where we get it, how we transport things, including ourselves, how we grow our food, build our buildings, and even govern and educate ourselves. Radical it may sound, but necessary it most certainly is, and the sooner we implement something like it the more of civilisation we get to keep.

To those people who think this plan too ‘radical,’ I would suggest two things: First, what you or I think is entirely irrelevant in the face of reality. If the reality is that declining oil supplies will wreak havoc on our civilisation, then no amount of scoffing will prevent it. I would suggest you acquaint yourself with reality before deciding upon a sensible course of action. I will admit that it was only a few years ago that I would have considered this plan extreme, but I have been busy educating myself about the truth of our situation. This article assumes that you have done some research already and are aware we face multiple crises; you know I am not scaremongering, but simply confronting reality.

Second, if you are willing to think sensibly about our current economic model, that is what you will find to be ultimately insane. And you will realise that one reason such ‘radical’ changes are needed now is because we did not make smaller changes earlier. We are like the smoker who has ignored doctor’s warnings for a long time, and now faces radical surgery and possibly even death as a result.

Here are the things that must be done in developed countries, particularly Canada and the United States; you can see why we’re unlikely to do them – there will be great resistance from vested interests and the majority of unaware people. As a result, we will likely suffer greatly. Continue reading →

We are likely at or near peak oil. The effects will be devastating, including a permanent recession/depression and a major scaling back of civilisation-as-we-know-it. The current recession may well be as much due to high oil prices – now ~$80 per barrel, or quadruple the price of just a few years ago – as to the banksters.

Note: This article is aimed at people with some awareness of peak oil. (It has been increasingly in the news lately.) For a frightening and well-sourced look at expected outcomes, check out Life After the Oil Crash. If you don’t want to ‘believe’ that site, there are plenty more where that came from; I’ve sourced a few reputable sites at the end of this post along with some good peak oil books.

The key points are these:

• Our economy requires continuous growth. Our economy runs on oil. Oil substitutes are nowhere near being ready in sufficient quantity to take over, if that is even possible. Therefore, a reduction in oil supply/increase in prices means an economic contraction.

• Because oil is used for virtually every single thing in our society, from factory-farmed food, to our entire transportation system, to even building alternative energy systems, price increases will ripple through the economy and bankrupt countless people and companies.

What I want to talk about here is the expected response of various governments, especially mine (Canada) and the U.S. Given a serious depression brought on by spiking oil prices and a shortage of supply, what will governments do? Continue reading →