Our society runs on cheap and readily available energy just as our bodies require oxygen. And, just as any restriction in our supply of oxygen causes us immediate and serious harm, so will any crimp in the supply of energy rapidly drop our civilisation to its knees. That energy has allowed us to do fantastic things. In fact, we have been “high” on energy since the Industrial Revolution, but the party is winding down. We must change how we think about energy – now.

Substitute “energy” for “love” in the song by Sweet and you ruin the rhythm but get a fairly accurate idea of how important energy is:

Love is like oxygen
You get too much you get too high
Not enough and you’re gonna die
Love gets you high

Why is energy considered so critically important to our civilisation? Simply, there is no civilization-as-we-know-it without the energy we use in its current forms and proportions, mainly fossil fuels, nuclear, and hydroelectric. Any significant change in any of those energy sources and our civilisation would be severely shocked. We have built our society upon cheap and reliable energy. Continue reading →

On our current course, a collapse is, barring a miracle, inevitable, and many would say that it could come at any time. Indeed, some have pointed to the recent U.S. and global economic fiasco as a sign that the collapse has begun. Others point out that, just prior to the economic meltdown, oil prices had spiked to USD 147/barrel, roughly double what they are now – and that prices now are much higher than they have been for decades. This could be a sign that “peak oil” has arrived and that the future will hold many more, and more extreme, oil price spikes.

In an interview with long-time environmentalist/green energy/green solutions guy Guy Dauncey this past Tuesday, I raised some of these concerns and he replied “bollocks,” or words to that effect. Regular readers will know that I lean toward a collapse being considerably more likely than not, and that I suggest preparing for it. Part of the reason for my prediction is reality – oil really is running out, climate change is really happening – and part is political: our ‘leaders’ are going in the wrong direction, heavily influenced by their corporate sponsors. (Politicians should wear Nascar-style jackets, covered with the logos of major contributors.)

Guy Dauncey is absolutely, relentlessly optimistic that we can make the transition to a post-oil, carbon neutral world – and quickly. As he spends much of his time researching solutions, and as I have read some of his books and attended some of his lectures, I believe him when he says we can do it. But Dauncey goes further – he also says we can build the political will in time to makes this transition, and this is difficult to support based on recent evidence.

Both Dauncey and I refer to the mobilisation for World War II that occurred within months. Most peak oil scholars suggest we need to start any transition twenty years prior to the time of peak oil, which could well be upon us now. This puts Dauncey at odds with some well-respected folks who have done a great deal of research of their own in the field. But could he be right? Continue reading →

[Disclaimer: I've said before and repeat here: Predicting when a major event like a collapse will happen is for mugs. One can look at current trends and extrapolate, but one cannot know how humans will respond to changing circumstances. That said, one can make educated guesses.]

We face ‘converging catastrophes,’ driven by pollution and resource depletion, and made worse by overpopulation. The two most visible and clearly dangerous are climate change and peak oil.

The Climate Change Social Tipping Point

At current rates of sea-level rise, tens of millions of people will be displaced within 25 years. If you think all those people, and the countries they live in, are going to go quietly into the night…well, would you?

Current projections suggest a sea level rise of at least one metre this century is now likely. A one-metre rise will displace at least 56 million people, and possibly double that.

From Bangladesh to the Maldives, from Vietnam to Pakistan to Alexandria to Venice, millions upon millions of people will be driven from their homes and livelihoods. And where are they to go? Into ever-more crowded areas of their own – and neighbouring – countries. Rising sea levels will produce a tide of climate refugees that will make the chaos in Darfur look mild.

Many of those refugees, and the people whose lands they attempt to crowd into, are going to be angry. Combine that with nothing left to lose, and we have a recipe for human-caused Armageddon . Continue reading →

Some people have a problem with me having Amazon links to books on my site. Not many, but a vocal few who seem to think the free lunch exists and they are entitled to it. Here’s the way it works: If someone clicks on one of the Amazon links AND makes a subsequent purchase from Amazon, I get a commission. I don’t see the problem with that; if you don’t like it, don’t buy from Amazon through me. The content is still yours to enjoy, free.

Now, having established that I do make money writing about climate change, peak oil, going green, and so forth, some question my objectivity. But think about it; I could have chosen to write about anything. I could be writing that global warming is NOT occurring; that would seem a more lucrative field. People get grants from major oil and coal companies and their organizations to do just that. And they have ads, sell items – and have Amazon links on their sites. I haven’t heard of any green writers getting grants from corporations, or governments, or anyone. (Feel free to donate to the cause.)

So, in other words, I – for some reason – picked a less lucrative field to write about. Why on earth would I do that? And why have I been writing in this same field for free, from comments on Reddit, to posts on newgreeneconomy.com and ning.newgreeneconomy.com and greenparty.ca and Celsias – ever since sometime around 2005? That time, not coincidentally, is when I decided to investigate global warming for myself and started researching to determine the truth of the matter, including the actual scientific papers in some cases. Why would I do all this unless I believe in what I’m doing? Continue reading →