Let me make three things perfectly clear: First, in a serious depression, a là the Great Depression, very little is safe and in a collapse there are no secure jobs. Second, the whole idea of a ‘job’ is likely to become a quaint notion the worse the depression or collapse gets. And third, this article is somewhat tongue-in-cheek; its main purpose is to get you to think about your future on our current unsustainable path.

During the Great Depression the unemployment rate in the United States rose to about 25% – meaning there were still many people employed. Some of them hired the unemployed and desperate as servants. During a collapse, however, the entire economic system is thrown into turmoil, discredited, and, well, collapses. (Here is a brief and entirely non-technical explanation of the difference between recession, depression, and collapse.)

Far more secure is some form of self-employment. The worse the depression/collapse, the closer to being a provider of necessities you want to be. People will still need to eat, but travel to exotic locations will be cut. So, without further ado, here are my lists of ‘jobs’ that are most and least likely to be immune to a severe depression or collapse. Continue reading →

In previous articles, I discussed various collapse scenarios and why they are likely. Here, let us consider how to prepare as best we can.

Unless you’re 85 years old, a partial or complete collapse within your lifetime is a good possibility. Even if we somehow dodge this outcome, we must still move to a sustainable way-of-living very soon; oil and natural gas are running out, fisheries are collapsing, climate change is happening, and so on. What to do? The possibilities include total self-sufficiency for the individual, joining a lifeboat community, or positioning yourself as best you can within an existing community. Continue reading →

Various thinkers, including me, have posited that a collapse is coming. I would very much like to believe I am wrong, but the only arguments against seem to consist of character attacks along the lines of “You’re crazy,” or simply “It will never happen”-type wishful thinking.

Maybe, but until someone has reality-based reasons for why there will not be a collapse, I’ll stick with the evidence. The primary reason for the impending demise of our civilisation is that we, as a society, have chosen to believe what suits us over accepting reality. (See The Wisdom Deficit: How Very Intelligent People and Our Own Wishful Thinking are Leading Us to Disaster for a fuller explanation.) The questions that remain are: When will the collapse begin, how quickly will it unfold, will anything useful be done to prevent or mitigate the damage, and what should you be doing now? Continue reading →

On our current course, a collapse is, barring a miracle, inevitable, and many would say that it could come at any time. Indeed, some have pointed to the recent U.S. and global economic fiasco as a sign that the collapse has begun. Others point out that, just prior to the economic meltdown, oil prices had spiked to USD 147/barrel, roughly double what they are now – and that prices now are much higher than they have been for decades. This could be a sign that “peak oil” has arrived and that the future will hold many more, and more extreme, oil price spikes.

In an interview with long-time environmentalist/green energy/green solutions guy Guy Dauncey this past Tuesday, I raised some of these concerns and he replied “bollocks,” or words to that effect. Regular readers will know that I lean toward a collapse being considerably more likely than not, and that I suggest preparing for it. Part of the reason for my prediction is reality – oil really is running out, climate change is really happening – and part is political: our ‘leaders’ are going in the wrong direction, heavily influenced by their corporate sponsors. (Politicians should wear Nascar-style jackets, covered with the logos of major contributors.)

Guy Dauncey is absolutely, relentlessly optimistic that we can make the transition to a post-oil, carbon neutral world – and quickly. As he spends much of his time researching solutions, and as I have read some of his books and attended some of his lectures, I believe him when he says we can do it. But Dauncey goes further – he also says we can build the political will in time to makes this transition, and this is difficult to support based on recent evidence.

Both Dauncey and I refer to the mobilisation for World War II that occurred within months. Most peak oil scholars suggest we need to start any transition twenty years prior to the time of peak oil, which could well be upon us now. This puts Dauncey at odds with some well-respected folks who have done a great deal of research of their own in the field. But could he be right? Continue reading →